NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


Check out the WINDGRAMS Windgrams are available for some Eastern Sierra sites from the more accurate RASP data


Sounding

Station:

KVBG (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Garlock WSW 12 12743 W 14 13465 SW 13 12693 WSW 12 12985 SW 11 13465 SW 11 13941
Boomer Ridge W 17 11703 W 20 12307 WSW 18 11703 WSW 17 11904 SW 14 12508 SSW 14 12709
9-Mile W 16 12758 WSW 19 13477 SW 18 13238 SW 18 13477 S 17 13714 S 16 14385
Flynns WSW 8 10142 SSW 9 10757 S 13 11167 S 12 10962 SSE 11 11574 SSE 11 11973
Gunter W 9 6304 SSW 9 7352 S 13 7352 S 13 7560 SSE 12 7767 S 13 8175
Paiute W 8 9078 SSW 9 10343 S 13 10343 S 12 10343 SSE 12 10762 SSE 12 11180
Chalk Bluffs W 6 12932 SSW 6 13693 S 10 14173 S 9 13934 S 9 14649 SSW 10 15119
McGee Creek WSW 8 8741 WSW 13 9380 WSW 10 10227 WSW 10 10016 SW 9 10647 WSW 9 10853
Bria Dog Ridge WNW 9 7722 WSW 13 8787 SW 10 8995 WSW 9 9203 SE 8 9412 SSE 9 9830
Mammoth SW 12 6509 WSW 17 7759 SW 13 8271 WSW 17 8525 WSW 13 8998 WSW 13 9223
Walts E 8 6287 SSE 11 6921 SSE 14 7132 SSE 14 7343 SSE 13 7971 SSE 12 7762
Copper Mountain WNW 11 7124 WSW 13 7991 WSW 12 8846 SW 11 8846 SSE 10 9270 WSW 11 9482
Horseshoe E 8 6287 SSE 11 6921 SSE 14 7132 SSE 14 7343 SSE 13 7971 SSE 12 7762
Wolf Peak W 8 8061 WSW 14 9354 WSW 10 10114 WSW 10 10347 W 8 11028 W 8 11230
Sweetwater NW 10 8016 WSW 14 8799 W 12 9569 W 16 9822 WNW 12 10312 SSW 13 10538
Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center W 21 12445 W 25 12844 W 23 12475 WSW 19 12605 W 18 13318 W 18 14020

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]