NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WSW 13 7956 WSW 13 8784 WSW 11 8989 W 9 8784 N 8 8371 WSW 10 8371
Oatman Mt WSW 12 4363 WSW 12 5424 WSW 11 5844 WSW 9 5424 WSW 9 5002 SW 10 5213
Shaw Butte WSW 10 4052 WSW 9 5108 WSW 9 5108 WSW 6 4897 SW 5 4687 WSW 6 4897
The Y W 14 8539 W 14 9158 W 12 9772 SW 11 9364 WSW 9 8953 WSW 10 8953
Phoenix Regional W 10 4853 W 11 5910 W 9 5910 NW 6 5489 ESE 5 5278 W 8 5489
Humbolt W 10 8000 W 10 8836 WSW 9 9249 W 8 8630 ESE 6 8630 N 8 8630
Miller Canyon W 13 2546 NNW 8 3723 NNW 6 6681 NNE 5 4032 E 6 5718 W 5 4032
Box Canyon NW 13 6513 NW 12 6724 NW 11 7146 NE 9 6936 N 9 6936 NNW 9 6724
Mustang Mountain WNW 14 4312 NW 12 5433 NW 10 6821 E 8 6608 E 8 6608 NNW 6 5731
Whetstone Mountain NW 14 3634 WNW 14 4802 NW 11 7210 E 9 7210 E 9 7210 NE 9 4802
Mt Lemmon NW 13 4187 WNW 13 4927 WNW 11 5615 NNW 9 5148 N 9 4927 WNW 10 4927
A Mountain WSW 11 7024 WNW 10 8307 WNW 8 8721 NNE 5 8515 NW 5 8515 WNW 6 8307
Rainbow Valley W 10 4729 W 10 5784 W 9 5784 W 6 5575 W 5 5154 W 6 5364
Pinal Peak W 15 8937 W 17 9543 W 16 9744
Harquahala W 13 5877 W 12 7650 W 12 8068 W 11 7650 WSW 10 7650 WSW 11 7860
El Tiro Gliderport SW 11 6922 WNW 10 7342 NW 8 7762 NW 6 7553 NW 5 7342 WNW 6 7342
Mt Ord WSW 13 7822 WSW 13 8454 WSW 11 8454 W 11 8244 ENE 10 8033 WNW 10 8033

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]