Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.1559626015, -116.809663372, 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 FEB 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 SW 4 9 4339 3900 0 White 3
1 AM Wed 49 49 SSE 4 10 4339 3900 0 White 3
2 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 4 10 4339 3900 0 White 3
3 AM Wed 49 49 SW 6 12 4339 3900 0 White 3
4 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 13 21 4339 3900 0 White 3
5 AM Wed 49 49 SW 9 16 4339 3900 0 White 3
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 8 14 4113 3900 0 White 2
7 AM Wed 48 48 WSW 10 17 4113 3900 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 47 47 W 8 13 3890 3900 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 9 16 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 WSW 10 18 3890 3900 0 White 1
11 AM Wed 48 49 WSW 10 18 4339 3900 0 White 3
12 Noon Wed 48 49 W 10 17 4339 3900 0 White 3
1 PM Wed 48 49 W 11 19 4339 3900 0 White 3
2 PM Wed 49 50 W 11 19 4564 3968 68 White 4
3 PM Wed 50 50 W 11 19 4564 3968 68 White 4
4 PM Wed 49 49 W 10 18 4339 3900 0 White 3
5 PM Wed 49 49 W 8 14 4339 3900 0 White 3
6 PM Wed 48 48 NW 5 11 4113 3900 0 White 2
7 PM Wed 46 46 NNW 4 9 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 N 3 9 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NNE 3 8 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NE 3 9 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NE 3 8 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NE 3 8 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 3 8 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 NE 4 9 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 10 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 11 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 11 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NE 5 10 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NNE 4 10 3278 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 4 10 3890 3900 0 White 1
9 AM Thu 50 52 WNW 4 9 5010 5010 1110 White 6
10 AM Thu 52 54 WSW 4 10 5447 5447 1547 White 8
11 AM Thu 54 57 WSW 5 10 6098 6098 2198 White 11
12 Noon Thu 55 58 W 5 11 6314 6314 2414 White 12
1 PM Thu 56 58 W 6 12 6314 6314 2414 White 12
2 PM Thu 57 59 W 6 12 6531 6531 2631 White 13
3 PM Thu 58 59 W 6 12 6531 6531 2631 White 13
4 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 12 6098 6098 2198 White 11
5 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 13 5881 5881 1981 White 10
6 PM Thu 54 54 NNE 8 13 5447 5447 1547 White 8
7 PM Thu 52 52 ENE 9 16 5010 5010 1110 White 6
8 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 10 18 4789 4491 591 White 5
9 PM Thu 51 51 ENE 12 20 4789 4491 591 White 5
10 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 13 23 4564 3968 68 White 4
11 PM Thu 50 50 ENE 14 24 4564 3968 68 White 4
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 ENE 14 24 4564 3968 68 White 4
1 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 14 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
2 AM Fri 50 50 ENE 16 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
3 AM Fri 50 50 E 16 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
4 AM Fri 50 50 E 16 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
5 AM Fri 50 50 E 16 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 16 25 4564 3968 68 White 4
7 AM Fri 51 51 E 14 24 4789 4491 591 White 5
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 13 23 5228 5228 1328 White 7
9 AM Fri 56 57 E 12 20 6098 6098 2198 White 11
10 AM Fri 58 61 E 11 18 6961 6961 3061 White 15
11 AM Fri 60 64 E 11 18 7603 7603 3703 White 18
12 Noon Fri 61 65 ESE 11 19 7814 7814 3914 White 19
1 PM Fri 62 66 ESE 11 19 8027 8027 4127 White 20
2 PM Fri 62 65 ESE 10 18 7814 7814 3914 White 19
3 PM Fri 63 64 SE 9 16 7603 7603 3703 White 18
4 PM Fri 62 62 SSE 8 14 7176 7176 3276 White 16
5 PM Fri 60 60 SE 6 13 6747 6747 2847 White 14
6 PM Fri 58 58 SE 5 12 6314 6314 2414 White 12
7 PM Fri 56 56 ESE 5 11 5881 5881 1981 White 10
8 PM Fri 55 55 ESE 6 12 5663 5663 1763 White 9
9 PM Fri 54 54 E 8 14 5447 5447 1547 White 8
10 PM Fri 54 54 E 9 16 5447 5447 1547 White 8
11 PM Fri 54 54 E 10 17 5447 5447 1547 White 8
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 E 10 17 5447 5447 1547 White 8
1 AM Sat 54 54 E 10 17 5447 5447 1547 White 8
2 AM Sat 54 54 E 9 17 5447 5447 1547 White 8
3 AM Sat 54 54 E 9 16 5447 5447 1547 White 8
4 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 8 14 5447 5447 1547 White 8
5 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 8 14 5228 5228 1328 White 7
6 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 8 14 5228 5228 1328 White 7
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 9 16 5447 5447 1547 White 8
8 AM Sat 55 55 E 9 16 5663 5663 1763 White 9
9 AM Sat 57 57 E 9 16 6098 6098 2198 White 11
10 AM Sat 58 59 S 6 12 6531 6531 2631 White 13
11 AM Sat 60 61 S 6 12 6961 6961 3061 White 15
12 Noon Sat 60 61 S 6 12 6961 6961 3061 White 15
1 PM Sat 61 62 SW 9 17 7176 7176 3276 White 16
2 PM Sat 61 62 SW 9 17 7176 7176 3276 White 16
3 PM Sat 61 61 SW 9 17 6961 6961 3061 White 15
4 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 8 14 6747 6747 2847 White 14
5 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 8 14 6314 6314 2414 White 12
6 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 8 14 5881 5881 1981 White 10
7 PM Sat 54 54 NE 4 9 5447 5447 1547 White 8
8 PM Sat 54 54 NE 4 9 5447 5447 1547 White 8
9 PM Sat 54 54 NE 4 9 5447 5447 1547 White 8
10 PM Sat 54 54 ESE 5 11 5447 5447 1547 White 8
11 PM Sat 53 53 ESE 5 11 5228 5228 1328 White 7
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 ESE 5 11 5228 5228 1328 White 7
1 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 5 11 5010 5010 1110 White 6
2 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 5 11 5010 5010 1110 White 6
3 AM Sun 51 51 ESE 5 11 4789 4491 591 White 5
4 AM Sun 50 50 ESE 5 11 4564 3968 68 White 4
5 AM Sun 51 51 ESE 5 11 4789 4491 591 White 5
6 AM Sun 52 52 ESE 5 11 5010 5010 1110 White 6
7 AM Sun 53 53 ESE 6 13 5228 5228 1328 White 7
8 AM Sun 54 54 ESE 6 13 5447 5447 1547 White 8
9 AM Sun 55 56 ESE 6 13 5881 5881 1981 White 10
10 AM Sun 56 57 SSW 8 14 6098 6098 2198 White 11
11 AM Sun 56 58 SSW 8 14 6314 6314 2414 White 12
12 Noon Sun 57 59 SSW 8 14 6531 6531 2631 White 13
1 PM Sun 57 59 SW 11 19 6531 6531 2631 White 13
2 PM Sun 57 58 SW 11 19 6314 6314 2414 White 12
3 PM Sun 56 56 SW 11 19 5881 5881 1981 White 10
4 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 10 18 5881 5881 1981 White 10
5 PM Sun 54 54 WSW 10 18 5447 5447 1547 White 8
6 PM Sun 53 53 WSW 10 18 5228 5228 1328 White 7
7 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 11 4789 4491 591 White 5
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 11 4789 4491 591 White 5
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 11 4789 4491 591 White 5
10 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 6 13 4564 3968 68 White 4
11 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 6 13 4564 3968 68 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 WSW 6 13 4564 3968 68 White 4
1 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 6 12 4339 3900 0 White 3
2 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 12 4113 3900 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 12 4113 3900 0 White 2
4 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 6 12 3890 3900 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 6 12 4113 3900 0 White 2
6 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 6 12 4339 3900 0 White 3
7 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 8 14 4564 3968 68 White 4
8 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 8 14 4564 3968 68 White 4
9 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 8 14 4564 3968 68 White 4
10 AM Mon 50 50 SW 10 17 4564 3968 68 White 4
11 AM Mon 50 51 SW 10 17 4789 4491 591 White 5
12 Noon Mon 50 51 SW 10 17 4789 4491 591 White 5
1 PM Mon 50 51 SSW 12 21 4789 4491 591 White 5
2 PM Mon 49 49 SSW 12 21 4339 3900 0 White 3
3 PM Mon 49 49 SSW 12 21 4339 3900 0 White 3
4 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 18 4339 3900 0 White 3
5 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 10 18 4113 3900 0 White 2
6 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 10 18 4113 3900 0 White 2
7 PM Mon 49 49 S 8 13 4339 3900 0 White 3
8 PM Mon 49 49 S 8 13 4339 3900 0 White 3
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 13 4564 3968 68 White 4
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 8 14 4564 3968 68 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst