Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 26 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 6 12 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 4 10 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 4 9 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 5 10 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 SW 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 8 14 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 9 17 440 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 10 17 440 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 54 SSW 11 18 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 56 SSW 11 20 2722 1500 0 White 2
12 Noon Fri 58 60 SSW 12 21 3588 3346 1846 White 6
1 PM Fri 59 61 SSW 12 21 3805 3736 2236 White 7
2 PM Fri 59 61 SW 12 20 3805 3736 2236 White 7
3 PM Fri 60 61 SW 13 23 3805 3736 2236 White 7
4 PM Fri 60 61 WSW 13 21 3805 3736 2236 White 7
5 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 12 20 3588 3346 1846 White 6
6 PM Fri 59 59 WSW 12 20 3372 2917 1417 White 5
7 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 11 19 2939 1984 484 White 3
8 PM Fri 55 55 WSW 11 19 2500 1500 0 White 1
9 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 12 20 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 13 21 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 13 21 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 WSW 12 20 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 10 18 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 9 16 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 SW 8 13 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 SSW 6 12 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 S 5 11 440 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 SSW 6 12 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 57 SW 6 13 2939 1984 484 White 3
11 AM Sat 59 65 WSW 8 14 4668 4668 3168 White 11
12 Noon Sat 62 69 WSW 9 16 5514 5514 4014 White 15
1 PM Sat 64 71 WSW 11 18 5935 5889 4389 White 17
2 PM Sat 66 72 WSW 12 20 6145 6005 4505 White 18
3 PM Sat 67 72 WSW 12 20 6145 6005 4505 White 18
4 PM Sat 66 69 WSW 12 20 5514 5514 4014 White 15
5 PM Sat 65 66 WSW 11 19 4882 4882 3382 White 12
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 10 17 4237 4237 2737 White 9
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 8 14 3588 3346 1846 White 6
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 6 12 2939 1984 484 White 3
9 PM Sat 55 55 W 4 9 2500 1500 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 54 54 SW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SSW 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 S 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 SSE 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 SE 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 ESE 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 SSE 2 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 WSW 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 WSW 3 8 3155 2481 981 White 4
10 AM Sun 60 63 WSW 4 10 4237 4237 2737 White 9
11 AM Sun 64 71 WSW 5 12 5935 5889 4389 White 17
12 Noon Sun 67 75 WSW 8 14 6773 6750 5250 White 21
1 PM Sun 70 78 WSW 10 17 7061 6827 5327 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 71 78 WSW 11 19 7061 6827 5327 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 72 78 W 12 20 7061 6827 5327 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 72 76 W 12 20 6861 6776 5276 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 70 72 W 11 19 6145 6005 4505 White 18
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 10 17 5303 5303 3803 White 14
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 8 13 4452 4452 2952 White 10
8 PM Sun 61 61 WNW 5 11 3805 3736 2236 White 7
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 4 9 3155 2481 981 White 4
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 3 8 2939 1984 484 White 3
11 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 3 8 2500 1500 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SSW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 SSW 3 8 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SSW 3 8 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 SSW 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 SW 3 8 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 SW 3 8 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 56 W 3 8 2722 1500 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 60 62 W 3 8 4021 4021 2521 White 8
10 AM Mon 65 68 W 3 8 5303 5303 3803 White 14
11 AM Mon 70 77 WSW 6 12 6920 6802 5302 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 73 81 WSW 6 12 8002 7031 5531 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 75 83 WSW 6 12 8449 7456 5956 White 29
2 PM Mon 75 82 WSW 11 18 8242 7175 5675 White 28
3 PM Mon 76 82 WSW 11 18 8242 7175 5675 White 28
4 PM Mon 75 79 WSW 11 18 7206 6852 5352 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 73 75 W 10 18 6773 6750 5250 White 21
6 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 18 5723 5723 4223 White 16
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 10 18 4882 4882 3382 White 12
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 6 12 4237 4237 2737 White 9
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 6 12 3588 3346 1846 White 6
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 6 12 3372 2917 1417 White 5
11 PM Mon 57 57 SW 4 10 2939 1984 484 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 2722 1500 0 White 2
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 4 10 2500 1500 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 SSW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 SSW 2 6 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 WSW 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 WSW 2 6 2500 1500 0 White 1
8 AM Tue 57 57 WSW 4 9 2939 1984 484 White 3
9 AM Tue 61 63 WSW 4 9 4237 4237 2737 White 9
10 AM Tue 65 68 WSW 4 9 5303 5303 3803 White 14
11 AM Tue 70 75 WSW 8 14 6773 6750 5250 White 21
12 Noon Tue 72 78 WSW 8 14 7061 6827 5327 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 74 81 WSW 8 14 8002 7031 5531 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 74 80 WSW 12 20 7570 6908 5408 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 74 78 WSW 12 20 7061 6827 5327 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 74 77 WSW 12 20 6920 6802 5302 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 72 73 WSW 11 19 6354 6333 4833 White 19
6 PM Tue 69 69 WSW 11 19 5514 5514 4014 White 15
7 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 11 19 4668 4668 3168 White 11
8 PM Tue 62 62 WSW 6 13 4021 4021 2521 White 8
9 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 6 13 3588 3346 1846 White 6
10 PM Tue 58 58 WSW 6 13 3155 2481 981 White 4
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 4 9 2939 1984 484 White 3
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 4 9 2722 1500 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 4 9 2500 1500 0 White 1
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 3 8 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 3 8 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 3 8 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 2 6 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 6 1258 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 W 2 6 2002 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 W 4 9 2722 1500 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 60 62 W 4 9 4021 4021 2521 White 8
10 AM Wed 65 68 W 4 9 5303 5303 3803 White 14
11 AM Wed 69 75 WSW 8 14 6773 6750 5250 White 21
12 Noon Wed 72 79 WSW 8 14 7206 6852 5352 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 74 81 WSW 8 14 8002 7031 5531 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 74 81 WSW 11 19 8002 7031 5531 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 75 80 WSW 11 19 7570 6908 5408 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 74 77 WSW 11 19 6920 6802 5302 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 11 19 6564 6564 5064 White 20
6 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 11 19 5723 5723 4223 White 16
7 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 11 19 4882 4882 3382 White 12
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 14 4237 4237 2737 White 9
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 14 3588 3346 1846 White 6
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 14 3155 2481 981 White 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst