Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8766103497, -116.848377211, 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 N 0 0 1231 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 N 0 0 1924 1500 0 White 3
9 AM Thu 65 67 N 0 0 2189 1987 487 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 70 75 N 0 0 2569 2397 897 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 76 83 N 0 0 3541 3103 1603 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 80 89 N 0 0 4889 4136 2636 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 82 91 N 0 0 5693 4599 3099 Blue 33
2 PM Thu 82 90 N 0 0 5294 4368 2868 Blue 32
3 PM Thu 82 89 N 0 0 4889 4136 2636 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 81 86 N 0 0 4160 3533 2033 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 80 83 N 0 0 3541 3103 1603 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 2 6 2846 2565 1065 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 4 9 2499 2338 838 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 5 11 2236 2165 665 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 10 2166 1971 471 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 4 9 1971 1901 401 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 8 1962 1624 124 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WNW 2 6 1924 1500 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 61 61 NNW 2 6 1924 1500 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 2 6 1702 1500 0 White 2
3 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 2 5 1702 1500 0 White 2
4 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 1 5 1702 1500 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 60 60 NNW 1 5 1702 1500 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 1 5 1702 1500 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 2 5 1962 1624 124 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 64 65 W 2 6 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 69 71 W 3 8 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 75 78 W 4 10 2846 2565 1065 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 80 87 W 5 12 4393 3695 2195 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 83 91 W 8 13 5693 4599 3099 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 86 94 W 8 14 6105 5633 4133 Blue 36
2 PM Fri 87 95 W 9 16 6228 5839 4339 Blue 37
3 PM Fri 88 95 W 9 16 6228 5839 4339 Blue 37
4 PM Fri 87 92 W 9 16 5858 4838 3338 Blue 34
5 PM Fri 85 88 W 8 14 4626 3908 2408 Blue 30
6 PM Fri 82 83 W 6 13 3541 3103 1603 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 5 11 2756 2497 997 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 4 9 2452 2280 780 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 3 8 2282 2188 688 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 68 68 SW 2 6 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 2 6 2166 1971 471 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SSW 1 5 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 65 65 S 1 5 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 65 65 SSE 1 5 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 64 64 SE 1 5 1990 1953 453 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 65 65 E 1 5 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 65 65 SE 2 5 2089 1962 462 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 2 5 2166 1971 471 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 68 68 SW 2 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 71 71 W 2 6 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 75 75 W 3 8 2569 2397 897 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 80 80 WSW 4 10 3162 2751 1251 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 84 89 WSW 6 12 4889 4136 2636 Blue 31
12 Noon Sat 87 93 WSW 8 14 5981 5239 3739 Blue 35
1 PM Sat 89 95 WSW 9 16 6228 5839 4339 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 90 96 WSW 10 17 6517 5962 4462 Blue 38
3 PM Sat 90 95 WSW 10 18 6228 5839 4339 Blue 37
4 PM Sat 89 92 WSW 10 17 5858 4838 3338 Blue 34
5 PM Sat 88 90 WSW 9 16 5294 4368 2868 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 85 86 WSW 8 13 4160 3533 2033 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 82 82 W 5 11 3444 2931 1431 Blue 24
8 PM Sat 78 78 W 4 9 2846 2565 1065 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 3 8 2665 2450 950 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 74 74 W 2 6 2499 2338 838 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 2 6 2452 2280 780 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 WSW 2 5 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 72 72 SW 2 5 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 71 71 SW 1 5 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
3 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 5 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
4 AM Sun 71 71 E 1 5 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 1 5 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 1 5 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 72 72 ESE 1 5 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 74 74 WSW 2 5 2499 2338 838 Blue 16
9 AM Sun 76 76 WSW 2 5 2665 2450 950 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 80 80 WSW 2 5 3162 2751 1251 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 83 86 W 5 11 4160 3533 2033 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 86 90 W 5 11 5294 4368 2868 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 88 92 W 5 11 5858 4838 3338 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 89 93 W 9 16 5981 5239 3739 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 89 92 W 9 16 5858 4838 3338 Blue 34
4 PM Sun 88 90 W 9 16 5294 4368 2868 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 86 88 W 9 16 4626 3908 2408 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 9 16 3541 3103 1603 Blue 25
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 9 16 3162 2751 1251 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 77 77 W 4 10 2756 2497 997 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 4 10 2569 2397 897 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 10 2452 2280 780 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 72 72 W 2 6 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 2 6 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 6 2282 2188 688 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 70 70 W 1 5 2282 2188 688 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 68 68 W 1 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 68 68 W 1 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 68 68 N 2 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 68 68 N 2 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 69 69 N 2 5 2236 2165 665 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 71 71 W 2 6 2341 2212 712 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 75 75 W 2 6 2569 2397 897 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 79 79 W 2 6 2937 2660 1160 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 83 90 W 6 12 5294 4368 2868 Blue 32
12 Noon Mon 85 93 W 6 12 5981 5239 3739 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 87 95 W 6 12 6228 5839 4339 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 88 96 W 10 17 6517 5962 4462 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 88 94 W 10 17 6105 5633 4133 Blue 36
4 PM Mon 87 91 W 10 17 5693 4599 3099 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 85 87 WNW 9 16 4393 3695 2195 Blue 29
6 PM Mon 83 84 WNW 9 16 3713 3339 1839 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 79 79 WNW 9 16 2937 2660 1160 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 76 76 W 5 11 2665 2450 950 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 74 74 W 5 11 2499 2338 838 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 72 72 W 5 11 2399 2235 735 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 70 70 WSW 2 6 2282 2188 688 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 WSW 2 6 2236 2165 665 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 68 68 WSW 2 6 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 68 68 W 2 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 67 67 W 2 5 2189 1987 487 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 66 66 W 2 5 2166 1971 471 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 66 66 NW 2 5 2166 1971 471 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 67 67 NW 2 5 2189 1987 487 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 68 68 NW 2 5 2212 2085 585 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 2 6 2282 2188 688 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 73 73 WNW 2 6 2452 2280 780 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 78 79 WNW 2 6 2937 2660 1160 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 82 89 W 6 12 4889 4136 2636 Blue 31
12 Noon Tue 85 93 W 6 12 5981 5239 3739 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 87 96 W 6 12 6517 5962 4462 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 88 96 W 10 17 6517 5962 4462 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 88 94 W 10 17 6105 5633 4133 Blue 36
4 PM Tue 87 91 W 10 17 5693 4599 3099 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 85 87 WNW 9 16 4393 3695 2195 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 82 83 WNW 9 16 3541 3103 1603 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 79 79 WNW 9 16 2937 2660 1160 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 75 75 W 4 10 2569 2397 897 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 73 73 W 4 10 2452 2280 780 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 71 71 W 4 10 2341 2212 712 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst