Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.7747, -116.477, 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 N 0 0 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 72 N 0 0 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 78 82 N 0 0 6521 5960 1420 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 82 88 N 0 0 8727 7508 2968 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 88 96 N 0 0 13947 11664 7124 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 90 99 N 0 0 14473 13879 9339 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 91 100 N 0 0 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
2 PM Thu 90 98 N 0 0 14370 13685 9145 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 90 97 N 0 0 14218 12083 7543 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 89 94 N 0 0 12846 10138 5598 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 84 87 N 0 0 8344 7004 2464 Blue 17
6 PM Thu 82 83 NW 2 6 6846 6087 1547 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 78 78 NW 4 10 5844 4793 253 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 72 72 NW 5 11 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 69 69 NW 5 11 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 NW 4 10 3299 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 NW 3 9 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 NW 3 8 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 3 8 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 3 8 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NNW 3 8 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 6 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 6 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NE 2 6 3261 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 ESE 1 5 3299 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 76 SSE 2 5 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 82 85 S 2 6 7560 6488 1948 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 88 94 SSW 4 9 12846 10138 5598 Blue 24
11 AM Fri 92 100 SSW 5 11 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
12 Noon Fri 95 104 SW 6 12 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 96 105 SW 6 13 16834 15221 10681 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 96 104 WSW 8 13 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 96 103 WSW 8 14 16114 14703 10163 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 95 100 WSW 8 14 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 93 96 WSW 8 13 13947 11664 7124 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 89 90 WSW 6 12 9856 8283 3743 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 4 10 7025 6213 1673 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 3 8 5971 5192 652 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 2 6 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 2 5 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 2 5 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 1 5 3848 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 70 70 ESE 1 5 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 ENE 2 5 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 ENE 2 5 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 E 2 5 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 E 2 6 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 ESE 2 6 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 77 77 ESE 2 6 5632 4555 15 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 82 83 SE 3 8 6846 6087 1547 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 87 90 SE 4 10 9856 8283 3743 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 92 97 S 6 12 14218 12083 7543 Blue 27
11 AM Sat 95 100 S 8 14 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 98 104 S 9 16 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 98 104 SSW 9 16 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 98 103 SW 9 16 16114 14703 10163 Blue 33
3 PM Sat 97 101 SW 9 16 15001 14346 9806 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 96 99 SW 9 16 14473 13879 9339 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 93 95 SW 8 14 13751 10912 6372 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 90 90 WSW 6 13 9856 8283 3743 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 86 86 WSW 5 11 7955 6825 2285 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 4 9 6521 5960 1420 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 79 79 W 3 9 5971 5192 652 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 3 8 5632 4555 15 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 3 6 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 WSW 2 6 4564 4540 0 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 73 73 W 2 6 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 72 72 W 2 6 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 72 72 W 2 6 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 71 71 W 2 5 3848 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 72 72 W 2 6 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 74 74 W 2 6 4564 4540 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 76 76 W 2 6 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 80 81 WSW 2 6 6224 5834 1294 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 84 85 WSW 2 6 7560 6488 1948 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 88 91 WSW 2 6 10216 8663 4123 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 92 96 W 6 12 13947 11664 7124 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 94 98 W 6 12 14370 13685 9145 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 96 101 W 6 12 15001 14346 9806 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 96 100 W 9 16 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 95 98 W 9 16 14370 13685 9145 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 94 96 W 9 16 13947 11664 7124 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 91 92 W 10 17 11131 9037 4497 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 87 87 W 10 17 8344 7004 2464 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 10 17 6521 5960 1420 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 78 78 WNW 6 12 5844 4793 253 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 76 76 WNW 6 12 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 6 12 4564 4540 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 9 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 W 4 9 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 71 71 W 4 9 3848 4540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 70 70 WNW 3 8 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 WNW 3 8 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 WNW 3 8 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 WNW 3 8 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 WNW 3 8 3848 4540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 74 74 WNW 3 8 4564 4540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 77 78 WNW 3 8 5844 4793 253 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 82 85 WNW 3 8 7560 6488 1948 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 88 93 WNW 3 8 11766 9781 5241 Blue 23
11 AM Mon 93 100 WNW 6 13 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 95 104 WNW 6 13 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
1 PM Mon 96 105 WNW 6 13 16834 15221 10681 Blue 35
2 PM Mon 96 104 WNW 9 17 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
3 PM Mon 95 102 WNW 9 17 15560 14412 9872 Blue 32
4 PM Mon 93 98 WNW 9 17 14370 13685 9145 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 90 92 WNW 10 17 11131 9037 4497 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 86 87 WNW 10 17 8344 7004 2464 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 82 82 WNW 10 17 6521 5960 1420 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 6 13 5844 4793 253 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 75 75 WNW 6 13 4803 4540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 73 73 WNW 6 13 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 5 10 4080 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 W 5 10 3848 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 70 70 W 5 10 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 4 9 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 WNW 4 9 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 4 9 3399 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 WNW 3 8 3498 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 WNW 3 8 3626 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 WNW 3 8 4322 4540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 76 77 WNW 4 9 5632 4555 15 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 82 85 WNW 4 9 7560 6488 1948 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 87 92 WNW 4 9 11131 9037 4497 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 92 100 WNW 8 13 14737 14073 9533 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 95 104 WNW 8 13 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 96 105 WNW 8 13 16834 15221 10681 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 96 104 W 10 17 16477 14861 10321 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 95 102 W 10 17 15560 14412 9872 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 94 99 W 10 17 14473 13879 9339 Blue 29
5 PM Tue 91 93 WNW 10 17 11766 9781 5241 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 87 88 WNW 10 17 8727 7508 2968 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 82 82 WNW 10 17 6521 5960 1420 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 78 78 WNW 6 13 5844 4793 253 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 76 76 WNW 6 13 5216 4540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 74 74 WNW 6 13 4564 4540 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst