Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 0 1 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 ENE 0 1 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 0 0 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 1 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 S 1 2 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 65 SSW 2 2 3201 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 67 NE 0 1 3512 2999 349 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 69 75 S 1 1 5798 4283 1633 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 72 79 S 3 4 6866 6040 3390 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 74 81 SSW 4 5 7626 6570 3920 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 75 81 SSW 4 5 7626 6570 3920 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 75 78 SSW 8 9 6601 5773 3123 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 74 76 SSW 7 9 6067 4668 2018 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 72 73 S 7 8 4700 3974 1324 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 68 68 S 7 9 3668 3199 549 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 63 63 S 6 10 2794 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 S 4 8 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 S 3 6 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SSE 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SE 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 SE 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 SE 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SE 1 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 ESE 1 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 ESE 1 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SSE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 59 SSE 1 1 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 64 S 2 2 3000 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 68 S 2 3 3668 3199 549 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 67 73 SSW 3 3 4700 3974 1324 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 69 76 SSW 4 4 6067 4668 2018 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 71 78 SW 4 5 6601 5773 3123 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 72 78 SW 5 6 6601 5773 3123 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 73 77 SW 6 7 6335 5309 2659 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 72 75 SW 8 9 5798 4283 1633 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 69 70 SSW 9 10 3979 3509 859 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 66 66 SSW 8 9 3357 2794 144 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 6 8 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 S 4 7 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 S 3 6 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 S 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 SSE 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 SSE 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 S 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 SE 3 6 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 5 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 S 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 S 2 4 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SSE 2 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 57 SE 2 3 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 63 SSE 2 2 2794 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 68 S 2 2 3668 3199 549 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 66 73 SSW 2 2 4700 3974 1324 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 70 78 S 1 2 6601 5773 3123 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 72 80 S 0 1 7175 6305 3655 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 74 81 SW 1 1 7626 6570 3920 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 76 81 SW 2 3 7626 6570 3920 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 75 78 SW 3 4 6601 5773 3123 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 73 75 SSW 5 6 5798 4283 1633 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 7 8 3979 3509 859 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 65 65 SSW 4 6 3201 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 2 4 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SSE 0 1 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 SE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 ESE 1 2 2575 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst