Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.9879562095, -117.122319277, 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 52 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 53 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 56 N 0 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 62 N 0 0 1747 1050 0 White 2
11 AM Thu 73 70 N 0 0 2210 2072 1022 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 75 74 N 0 0 2392 2232 1182 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 76 75 N 0 0 2446 2272 1222 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 75 74 N 0 0 2392 2232 1182 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 75 73 N 0 0 2333 2209 1159 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 74 70 N 0 0 2210 2072 1022 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 72 66 N 0 0 1982 1953 903 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 70 63 WNW 2 6 1953 1195 145 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 67 59 WNW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 56 WNW 6 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 54 WNW 5 11 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 53 WNW 4 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 53 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 52 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 52 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 52 NW 3 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 52 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 52 NW 3 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 52 NW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 52 NW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 53 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 54 WNW 3 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 60 WNW 3 9 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 65 W 5 11 1970 1892 842 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 74 71 W 6 12 2233 2162 1112 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 77 75 W 8 14 2446 2272 1222 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 78 76 W 9 17 2492 2330 1280 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 79 78 W 10 17 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 79 77 W 10 17 2556 2388 1338 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 78 74 W 9 16 2392 2232 1182 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 77 71 W 8 14 2233 2162 1112 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 74 67 W 6 13 2078 1961 911 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 70 62 W 5 11 1747 1050 0 White 2
8 PM Fri 67 59 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 57 WNW 3 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 56 WNW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 55 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 55 WNW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 WNW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 55 WNW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 54 NW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 55 ENE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 55 NE 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 56 N 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 58 NNW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 61 NW 3 8 1526 1050 0 White 1
10 AM Sat 74 66 W 4 9 1982 1953 903 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 75 W 5 11 2446 2272 1222 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 80 77 W 6 13 2556 2388 1338 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 81 79 WSW 8 14 2742 2490 1440 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 82 79 WSW 9 16 2742 2490 1440 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 82 78 WSW 9 16 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 82 77 WSW 9 16 2556 2388 1338 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 80 74 WSW 8 14 2392 2232 1182 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 78 70 W 6 12 2210 2072 1022 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 74 66 W 4 10 1982 1953 903 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 71 63 WNW 3 8 1953 1195 145 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 70 62 WNW 2 6 1747 1050 0 White 2
10 PM Sat 69 61 NW 2 6 1526 1050 0 White 1
11 PM Sat 69 61 NW 2 6 1526 1050 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 68 60 NW 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 60 NW 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 60 NW 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 60 NW 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 60 NNW 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 60 N 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 61 N 2 6 1526 1050 0 White 1
7 AM Sun 70 62 N 2 6 1747 1050 0 White 2
8 AM Sun 72 64 WSW 2 6 1962 1589 539 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 74 66 WSW 2 6 1982 1953 903 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 69 WSW 2 6 2186 1978 928 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 80 75 W 6 12 2446 2272 1222 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 82 78 W 6 12 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 82 78 W 6 12 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 82 78 W 9 16 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 82 77 W 9 16 2556 2388 1338 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 81 75 W 9 16 2446 2272 1222 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 80 73 W 8 14 2333 2209 1159 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 77 69 W 8 14 2186 1978 928 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 74 66 W 8 14 1982 1953 903 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 64 W 4 10 1962 1589 539 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 70 62 W 4 10 1747 1050 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 69 61 W 4 10 1526 1050 0 White 1
11 PM Sun 69 61 W 2 6 1526 1050 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 68 60 W 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 60 W 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 60 SSW 2 5 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 59 SSW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 58 SSW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 58 N 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 59 N 1 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 60 N 1 5 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 62 W 2 6 1747 1050 0 White 2
9 AM Mon 73 65 W 2 6 1970 1892 842 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 76 68 W 2 6 2163 1970 920 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 79 77 W 6 12 2556 2388 1338 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 81 80 W 6 12 2832 2550 1500 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 81 80 W 6 12 2832 2550 1500 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 82 80 W 9 17 2832 2550 1500 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 81 78 W 9 17 2651 2443 1393 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 80 76 W 9 17 2492 2330 1280 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 79 73 W 9 16 2333 2209 1159 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 76 69 W 9 16 2186 1978 928 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 73 65 W 9 16 1970 1892 842 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 70 62 W 4 10 1747 1050 0 White 2
9 PM Mon 69 61 W 4 10 1526 1050 0 White 1
10 PM Mon 68 60 W 4 10 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 60 SW 3 8 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 59 SW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 59 SW 3 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 58 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 58 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 58 SSW 2 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 58 SW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 58 SW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 58 SW 2 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 60 W 2 6 1203 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 63 W 2 6 1953 1195 145 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 75 68 W 2 6 2163 1970 920 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 78 76 W 6 12 2492 2330 1280 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 80 79 W 6 12 2742 2490 1440 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 81 80 W 6 12 2832 2550 1500 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 81 80 W 9 17 2832 2550 1500 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 81 79 W 9 17 2742 2490 1440 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 80 76 W 9 17 2492 2330 1280 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 78 72 W 9 16 2275 2185 1135 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 75 68 W 9 16 2163 1970 920 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 72 64 W 9 16 1962 1589 539 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 69 61 W 4 9 1526 1050 0 White 1
9 PM Tue 67 59 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 58 W 4 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst