Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 19 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 WNW 2 6 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 2 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 1 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 1 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 ESE 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SE 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 58 W 3 8 2653 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 60 62 WSW 3 8 2857 2834 1284 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 63 66 W 6 12 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 65 69 W 8 14 2921 2899 1349 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 66 70 W 9 14 2934 2906 1356 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 67 72 W 10 17 3042 2921 1371 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 66 70 W 10 17 2934 2906 1356 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 66 69 W 10 17 2921 2899 1349 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 65 66 W 9 16 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 14 2857 2834 1284 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 6 12 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 58 58 WNW 5 11 2653 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 4 10 2416 1550 0 White 1
10 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 4 9 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 WNW 3 8 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 WNW 3 8 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 6 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 3 8 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 WNW 4 10 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 61 63 WNW 5 11 2872 2842 1292 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 65 71 WNW 6 13 2947 2912 1362 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 67 74 WNW 9 14 3349 2945 1395 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 69 77 WNW 10 17 3880 3334 1784 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 70 77 WNW 11 18 3880 3334 1784 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 70 75 WNW 11 19 3526 3035 1485 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 69 72 WNW 11 18 3042 2921 1371 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 68 69 WNW 10 17 2921 2899 1349 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 65 65 WNW 9 16 2893 2857 1307 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 8 14 2857 2834 1284 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 60 60 NW 6 12 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 10 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 9 2653 1550 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 2 6 2416 1550 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 2 5 2416 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 56 56 NW 1 5 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 1 5 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NW 1 5 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NNW 1 5 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 NNW 2 5 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 NNW 2 5 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 2 5 2653 1550 0 White 2
8 AM Sun 60 61 WNW 2 6 2850 2815 1265 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 64 66 WNW 4 9 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 68 72 WNW 5 11 3042 2921 1371 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 72 78 WNW 8 13 4077 3511 1961 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 74 81 WNW 9 16 5019 4052 2502 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 75 82 W 10 17 5182 4333 2783 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 75 82 W 10 17 5182 4333 2783 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 75 80 W 10 17 4880 3862 2312 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 74 77 WNW 10 17 3880 3334 1784 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 72 73 WNW 9 16 3171 2933 1383 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 70 70 WNW 8 14 2934 2906 1356 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 66 66 WNW 8 13 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 6 12 2872 2842 1292 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 5 10 2857 2834 1284 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 60 60 NW 4 9 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 3 8 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NW 2 6 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 58 58 NNW 2 6 2653 1550 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 58 58 N 2 6 2653 1550 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 2 6 2416 1550 0 White 1
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 2 6 2416 1550 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 2 6 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 N 2 6 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 N 2 6 2416 1550 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 4 9 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 62 63 SSW 4 9 2872 2842 1292 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 66 68 SSW 4 9 2913 2893 1343 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 69 74 WSW 8 14 3349 2945 1395 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 71 77 WSW 8 14 3880 3334 1784 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 72 79 WSW 8 14 4392 3687 2137 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 72 78 W 12 20 4077 3511 1961 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 72 76 W 12 20 3703 3158 1608 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 71 74 W 12 20 3349 2945 1395 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 69 70 W 11 18 2934 2906 1356 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 11 18 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 11 18 2872 2842 1292 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 14 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 14 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 14 2653 1550 0 White 2
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 5 11 2416 1550 0 White 1
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 W 5 11 2416 1550 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 57 57 W 5 11 2416 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 57 57 SW 4 10 2416 1550 0 White 1
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 WSW 4 10 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 WSW 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 WSW 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SW 4 10 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 SW 4 10 2653 1550 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 61 61 SW 4 10 2850 2815 1265 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 64 68 W 8 14 2913 2893 1343 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 66 71 W 8 14 2947 2912 1362 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 67 72 W 8 14 3042 2921 1371 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 67 71 W 12 20 2947 2912 1362 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 67 70 W 12 20 2934 2906 1356 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 66 68 W 12 20 2913 2893 1343 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 65 66 W 11 19 2900 2871 1321 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 11 19 2857 2834 1284 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 11 19 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 9 16 2653 1550 0 White 2
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 16 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 9 16 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 12 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 5 12 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 5 12 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 WSW 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 W 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 W 4 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 W 4 10 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 W 4 10 2842 2556 1006 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 62 64 W 9 16 2887 2849 1299 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 64 67 W 9 16 2906 2886 1336 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 65 68 W 9 16 2913 2893 1343 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 65 68 W 12 20 2913 2893 1343 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 65 67 W 12 20 2906 2886 1336 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 12 20 2893 2857 1307 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 63 64 W 12 20 2887 2849 1299 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 12 20 2850 2815 1265 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 20 2834 2090 540 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 11 19 2416 1550 0 White 1
9 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 11 19 2114 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 WNW 11 19 2114 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst