Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.5740107668, -116.89399273, 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 WNW 6 12 2058 1550 0 White 2
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 11 2058 1550 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 5 10 969 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 WNW 4 9 969 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NW 4 10 969 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NNW 3 9 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 8 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 3 8 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NW 4 9 969 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 5 10 2281 1550 0 White 3
10 AM Mon 57 58 WNW 6 12 2940 2940 1390 White 6
11 AM Mon 59 64 WNW 9 16 4221 4221 2671 White 12
12 Noon Mon 62 67 WNW 11 18 4857 4857 3307 White 15
1 PM Mon 64 70 WNW 11 20 5494 5494 3944 White 18
2 PM Mon 64 70 WNW 12 21 5494 5494 3944 White 18
3 PM Mon 64 69 WNW 12 21 5284 5284 3734 White 17
4 PM Mon 64 67 WNW 12 20 4857 4857 3307 White 15
5 PM Mon 64 65 WNW 11 20 4431 4431 2881 White 13
6 PM Mon 63 63 WNW 10 18 4008 4008 2458 White 11
7 PM Mon 61 61 NW 9 16 3582 3582 2032 White 9
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 8 13 2726 2726 1176 White 5
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 12 2506 1669 119 White 4
10 PM Mon 55 55 NNW 5 11 2281 1550 0 White 3
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 11 2058 1550 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 4 10 2058 1550 0 White 2
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 4 10 1839 1550 0 White 1
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 4 9 969 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 3 8 969 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 2 6 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 2 5 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 1 5 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 1 5 969 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 57 WNW 2 6 2726 2726 1176 White 5
9 AM Tue 60 63 WNW 3 9 4008 4008 2458 White 11
10 AM Tue 65 70 WNW 5 11 5494 5494 3944 White 18
11 AM Tue 69 76 WNW 8 14 6743 6743 5193 White 24
12 Noon Tue 72 80 WNW 9 17 7567 7567 6017 White 28
1 PM Tue 73 81 WNW 11 19 7774 7774 6224 White 29
2 PM Tue 73 80 WNW 12 20 7567 7567 6017 White 28
3 PM Tue 73 78 WNW 12 20 7156 7156 5606 White 26
4 PM Tue 71 74 WNW 12 20 6331 6331 4781 White 22
5 PM Tue 69 70 WNW 11 19 5494 5494 3944 White 18
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 10 17 4857 4857 3307 White 15
7 PM Tue 64 64 NNW 8 14 4221 4221 2671 White 12
8 PM Tue 62 62 NNW 6 12 3796 3796 2246 White 10
9 PM Tue 60 60 NNW 4 10 3369 3369 1819 White 8
10 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 3 8 3155 3155 1605 White 7
11 PM Tue 58 58 NW 2 6 2940 2940 1390 White 6
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NNW 2 5 2726 2726 1176 White 5
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 2 5 2726 2726 1176 White 5
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 2 6 2506 1669 119 White 4
3 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
4 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
5 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 3 9 2281 1550 0 White 3
6 AM Wed 55 55 ENE 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
7 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 2 6 2506 1669 119 White 4
8 AM Wed 59 60 SSW 2 5 3369 3369 1819 White 8
9 AM Wed 63 65 SW 3 8 4431 4431 2881 White 13
10 AM Wed 68 72 W 5 11 5912 5912 4362 White 20
11 AM Wed 72 78 W 8 14 7156 7156 5606 White 26
12 Noon Wed 74 81 W 9 16 7774 7774 6224 White 29
1 PM Wed 74 81 W 10 17 7774 7774 6224 White 29
2 PM Wed 74 80 W 10 17 7567 7567 6017 White 28
3 PM Wed 74 79 W 10 17 7361 7361 5811 White 27
4 PM Wed 74 77 WNW 9 17 6950 6950 5400 White 25
5 PM Wed 72 73 WNW 9 16 6122 6122 4572 White 21
6 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 8 13 5284 5284 3734 White 17
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 12 4431 4431 2881 White 13
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 4 10 3796 3796 2246 White 10
9 PM Wed 60 60 W 4 9 3369 3369 1819 White 8
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 3 8 3155 3155 1605 White 7
11 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 3 6 3155 3155 1605 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SSW 3 8 2940 2940 1390 White 6
1 AM Thu 58 58 SW 3 8 2940 2940 1390 White 6
2 AM Thu 57 57 WSW 3 8 2726 2726 1176 White 5
3 AM Thu 56 56 SW 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
4 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
5 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
6 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
7 AM Thu 56 56 S 3 8 2506 1669 119 White 4
8 AM Thu 58 58 S 4 9 2940 2940 1390 White 6
9 AM Thu 61 62 S 4 9 3796 3796 2246 White 10
10 AM Thu 65 67 S 4 9 4857 4857 3307 White 15
11 AM Thu 69 72 W 8 13 5912 5912 4362 White 20
12 Noon Thu 70 74 W 8 13 6331 6331 4781 White 22
1 PM Thu 71 75 W 8 13 6536 6536 4986 White 23
2 PM Thu 72 76 W 11 19 6743 6743 5193 White 24
3 PM Thu 71 74 W 11 19 6331 6331 4781 White 22
4 PM Thu 70 72 W 11 19 5912 5912 4362 White 20
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 10 18 5494 5494 3944 White 18
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 18 4641 4641 3091 White 14
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 10 18 4008 4008 2458 White 11
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 6 12 3369 3369 1819 White 8
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 12 3155 3155 1605 White 7
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 12 2940 2940 1390 White 6
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 4 9 2726 2726 1176 White 5
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 4 9 2506 1669 119 White 4
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 4 9 2506 1669 119 White 4
2 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
3 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
4 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 8 2058 1550 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 8 2058 1550 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 8 2281 1550 0 White 3
8 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 9 2506 1669 119 White 4
9 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 9 3155 3155 1605 White 7
10 AM Fri 63 64 W 3 9 4221 4221 2671 White 12
11 AM Fri 66 72 W 8 14 5912 5912 4362 White 20
12 Noon Fri 68 75 W 8 14 6536 6536 4986 White 23
1 PM Fri 68 75 W 8 14 6536 6536 4986 White 23
2 PM Fri 68 74 W 12 20 6331 6331 4781 White 22
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 12 20 6331 6331 4781 White 22
4 PM Fri 68 71 W 12 20 5703 5703 4153 White 19
5 PM Fri 67 68 WNW 11 18 5074 5074 3524 White 16
6 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 11 18 4221 4221 2671 White 12
7 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 11 18 3582 3582 2032 White 9
8 PM Fri 59 59 WNW 8 13 3155 3155 1605 White 7
9 PM Fri 57 57 WNW 8 13 2726 2726 1176 White 5
10 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 8 13 2506 1669 119 White 4
11 PM Fri 56 56 WNW 4 10 2506 1669 119 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 WNW 4 10 2281 1550 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 4 10 2281 1550 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 4 9 2058 1550 0 White 2
3 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 4 9 2058 1550 0 White 2
4 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 4 9 2058 1550 0 White 2
5 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 8 2058 1550 0 White 2
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 8 1839 1550 0 White 1
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 8 2058 1550 0 White 2
8 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 9 2281 1550 0 White 3
9 AM Sat 58 59 SE 3 9 3155 3155 1605 White 7
10 AM Sat 62 64 SE 3 9 4221 4221 2671 White 12
11 AM Sat 65 71 WSW 8 14 5703 5703 4153 White 19
12 Noon Sat 67 74 WSW 8 14 6331 6331 4781 White 22
1 PM Sat 69 76 WSW 8 14 6743 6743 5193 White 24
2 PM Sat 70 76 WSW 11 19 6743 6743 5193 White 24
3 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 11 19 6536 6536 4986 White 23
4 PM Sat 69 72 WSW 11 19 5912 5912 4362 White 20
5 PM Sat 68 69 WSW 10 17 5284 5284 3734 White 17
6 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 10 17 4641 4641 3091 White 14
7 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 10 17 4008 4008 2458 White 11
8 PM Sat 60 60 WSW 8 13 3369 3369 1819 White 8
9 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 8 13 2940 2940 1390 White 6
10 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 8 13 2726 2726 1176 White 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst