Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.329, -116.97225, 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 60 55 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 53 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 53 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 53 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 53 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 53 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 55 N 0 0 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 58 N 0 0 1821 3200 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 66 63 N 0 0 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 70 70 N 0 0 2417 3200 0 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 76 78 N 0 0 3283 3200 0 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 80 83 N 0 0 4012 3472 272 Blue 26
1 PM Thu 82 86 N 0 0 4716 3992 792 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 82 85 N 0 0 4482 3775 575 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 82 84 N 0 0 4248 3569 369 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 82 82 N 0 0 3792 3374 174 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 82 80 N 0 0 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 80 76 W 1 5 2876 3200 0 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 75 70 W 2 6 2417 3200 0 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 68 63 W 3 8 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 65 60 WNW 3 8 1965 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 63 58 NW 2 6 1821 3200 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 63 58 NNW 1 5 1821 3200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 57 NNW 1 5 1598 3200 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 62 57 N 1 5 1598 3200 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 61 56 NNE 1 5 1326 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 56 NNE 2 5 1326 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 56 NE 2 5 1326 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 55 NE 2 6 1142 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 57 N 2 5 1598 3200 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 63 58 NW 2 5 1821 3200 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 66 62 WNW 2 5 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 70 67 WNW 2 6 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
10 AM Fri 75 74 W 3 9 2694 3200 0 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 80 82 W 4 10 3792 3374 174 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 84 87 W 5 11 5049 4226 1026 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 87 90 WSW 6 12 5909 5002 1802 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 88 91 WSW 6 13 6033 5403 2203 Blue 33
3 PM Fri 90 92 WSW 6 13 6157 5768 2568 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 89 89 WSW 6 12 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 88 86 WSW 5 11 4716 3992 792 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 84 80 SW 4 10 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 79 74 SW 3 8 2694 3200 0 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 74 69 SSW 2 5 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 72 67 S 2 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 70 65 SSE 2 5 2196 3200 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 69 64 SE 2 6 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 68 63 SE 2 6 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 68 63 SE 2 6 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 67 62 SE 2 6 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 67 62 SE 2 6 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 67 62 E 2 6 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 68 63 SE 3 8 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 69 64 SSE 2 6 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 70 65 S 2 6 2196 3200 0 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 73 68 SSW 2 6 2299 3200 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 78 74 SSW 2 6 2694 3200 0 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 83 80 SW 3 9 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 88 89 SW 5 10 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
12 Noon Sat 90 92 SW 6 12 6157 5768 2568 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 92 94 SW 8 14 6661 6015 2815 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 93 94 SW 9 16 6661 6015 2815 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 94 94 SW 10 17 6661 6015 2815 Blue 36
4 PM Sat 94 93 SW 9 17 6341 5891 2691 Blue 35
5 PM Sat 92 89 SSW 9 16 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
6 PM Sat 88 84 SW 6 13 4248 3569 369 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 83 78 WSW 4 10 3283 3200 0 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 78 73 WSW 3 8 2600 3200 0 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 76 71 SW 2 5 2467 3200 0 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 74 69 SSW 1 5 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 73 68 S 1 5 2299 3200 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 72 67 S 1 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 72 67 SE 1 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 72 67 SE 1 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 71 66 ESE 1 5 2219 3200 0 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 71 66 E 1 5 2219 3200 0 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 72 67 SSE 2 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 72 67 SSE 2 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 72 67 SSE 2 5 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 74 69 WSW 2 5 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 77 72 WSW 2 5 2514 3200 0 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 81 76 WSW 2 5 2876 3200 0 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 84 83 WSW 5 10 4012 3472 272 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 87 86 WSW 5 10 4716 3992 792 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 89 89 WSW 5 10 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 90 89 W 8 14 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 90 88 W 8 14 5455 4459 1259 Blue 31
4 PM Sun 90 87 W 8 14 5049 4226 1026 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 88 85 WSW 8 13 4482 3775 575 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 85 80 WSW 8 13 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 80 75 WSW 8 13 2785 3200 0 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 76 71 W 4 10 2467 3200 0 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 74 69 W 4 10 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 72 67 W 4 10 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 71 66 WNW 2 5 2219 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 70 65 WNW 2 5 2196 3200 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 69 64 WNW 2 5 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 69 64 NW 1 1 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 68 63 NW 1 1 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 68 63 NW 1 1 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 68 63 N 1 5 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 68 63 N 1 5 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 69 64 N 1 5 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 71 66 W 2 6 2219 3200 0 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 75 71 W 2 6 2467 3200 0 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 80 77 W 2 6 2968 3200 0 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 83 85 W 5 11 4482 3775 575 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 86 89 W 5 11 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
1 PM Mon 88 91 W 5 11 6033 5403 2203 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 88 91 W 8 14 6033 5403 2203 Blue 33
3 PM Mon 88 89 W 8 14 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
4 PM Mon 88 87 W 8 14 5049 4226 1026 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 88 85 W 8 13 4482 3775 575 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 84 80 W 8 13 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 79 74 W 8 13 2694 3200 0 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 75 70 WSW 4 10 2417 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 72 67 WSW 4 10 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 71 66 WSW 4 10 2219 3200 0 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 70 65 W 2 5 2196 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 69 64 W 2 5 2172 3200 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 68 63 W 2 5 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 68 63 NW 2 5 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 67 62 NW 2 5 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 66 61 NW 2 5 1973 3200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 66 61 NNW 2 5 1973 3200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 67 62 NNW 2 5 2013 3200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 68 63 NNW 2 5 2121 3200 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 70 65 WNW 2 6 2196 3200 0 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 73 69 WNW 2 6 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 78 75 WNW 2 6 2785 3200 0 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 82 84 W 5 10 4248 3569 369 Blue 27
12 Noon Tue 85 88 W 5 10 5455 4459 1259 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 87 90 W 5 10 5909 5002 1802 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 88 91 W 8 14 6033 5403 2203 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 88 89 W 8 14 5785 4692 1492 Blue 32
4 PM Tue 88 87 W 8 14 5049 4226 1026 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 88 85 W 8 13 4482 3775 575 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 84 80 W 8 13 3478 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 79 74 W 8 13 2694 3200 0 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 74 69 WSW 3 9 2358 3200 0 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 72 67 WSW 3 9 2243 3200 0 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 70 65 WSW 3 9 2196 3200 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst