Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 53 SE 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 52 SSE 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 51 SE 1 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 51 SE 1 4 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 51 ESE 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 SE 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 SE 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 51 SSE 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 53 SW 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 58 SW 2 6 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 60 SW 3 9 1776 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 63 SW 5 11 1957 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 68 66 SW 6 12 2154 2260 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 71 69 SW 8 13 2755 2260 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 73 72 SW 8 14 3320 2748 488 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 74 72 SW 10 17 3320 2748 488 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 74 71 SW 11 19 3160 2537 277 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 73 69 SSW 12 20 2755 2260 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 71 66 SSW 10 17 2154 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 68 63 S 8 13 1957 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 62 57 S 5 11 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 54 S 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 52 S 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 50 S 1 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 S 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 49 S 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 S 1 4 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 SSE 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 SE 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 SE 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 SSE 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 46 SSW 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 49 WSW 1 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 54 WSW 3 8 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 59 SW 4 10 1759 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 64 SW 6 12 2006 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 66 68 SW 8 13 2544 2260 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 68 70 SW 8 14 2958 2295 35 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 69 70 SW 9 16 2958 2295 35 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 71 71 SW 11 19 3160 2537 277 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 72 70 SW 12 21 2958 2295 35 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 71 67 SW 13 23 2297 2260 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 69 64 SSW 12 20 2006 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 66 61 SSW 9 17 1793 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 58 S 6 13 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 55 S 5 11 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 52 S 4 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 49 S 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 48 S 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 47 S 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 SSW 1 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 SW 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 45 W 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 45 W 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 46 W 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 47 W 1 1 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 49 W 2 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 53 W 2 6 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 58 WSW 3 9 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 65 WSW 4 10 2056 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 67 69 WSW 5 11 2755 2260 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 70 72 W 6 12 3320 2748 488 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 72 73 W 6 13 3474 2950 690 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 9 16 3627 3151 891 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 76 74 SW 10 18 3627 3151 891 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 75 71 SW 11 19 3160 2537 277 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 73 68 SW 11 18 2544 2260 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 70 65 SW 9 17 2056 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 67 62 SW 8 14 1810 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 59 SSW 6 12 1759 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 56 SSW 4 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 54 S 3 8 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 52 SSW 1 5 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 52 SW 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 52 SW 0 0 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 51 W 1 4 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 51 NNW 3 8 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 51 N 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 52 N 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 54 N 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 57 W 4 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 62 W 4 9 1810 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 68 W 4 9 2544 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 74 WSW 6 12 3627 3151 891 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 76 78 WSW 6 12 4240 3771 1511 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 79 81 WSW 6 12 5694 4228 1968 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 80 81 SW 11 18 5694 4228 1968 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 81 81 SW 11 18 5694 4228 1968 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 81 79 SW 11 18 4507 3923 1663 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 80 76 W 10 18 3934 3465 1205 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 77 72 W 10 18 3320 2748 488 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 72 67 W 10 18 2297 2260 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 68 63 SSW 8 14 1957 2260 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 65 60 SSW 8 14 1776 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 58 SSW 8 14 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 56 SSW 4 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 54 SSW 4 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 53 SSW 4 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 52 WSW 4 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 51 WSW 4 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 51 WSW 4 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 51 NNW 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 51 NNW 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 52 NNW 3 9 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 54 SSW 5 10 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 59 SSW 5 10 1759 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 64 SSW 5 10 2006 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 69 70 SW 8 14 2958 2295 35 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 72 74 SW 8 14 3627 3151 891 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 74 76 SW 8 14 3934 3465 1205 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 75 76 SW 12 20 3934 3465 1205 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 76 76 SW 12 20 3934 3465 1205 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 75 73 SW 12 20 3474 2950 690 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 73 69 SSW 12 21 2755 2260 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 70 65 SSW 12 21 2056 2260 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 66 61 SSW 12 21 1793 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 57 S 10 18 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 54 S 10 18 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 52 S 10 18 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 50 S 8 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 48 S 8 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 S 8 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 47 S 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 50 S 6 13 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 58 SW 9 16 1742 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 62 SW 9 16 1810 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 62 64 SW 9 16 2006 2260 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 64 65 SW 11 19 2056 2260 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 66 66 SW 11 19 2154 2260 0 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 65 63 SW 11 19 1957 2260 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 66 62 SW 13 23 1810 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 59 SW 13 23 1759 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 56 SW 13 23 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 53 SSW 11 19 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 50 SSW 11 19 1726 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 SSW 11 19 1726 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst