NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SSW 9 83 S 11 83 WSW 9 83 SW 10 83 W 9 83 W 9 83
Blossom Valley WSW 10 1803 SW 11 1206 WSW 9 1610 WSW 9 1461 W 9 1610 W 8 2153
Horse Canyon W 13 4770 WSW 12 1251 W 10 4101 WSW 9 3774 WSW 9 3774 WSW 6 5026
Little Black SW 10 1440 SSW 11 1288 WSW 10 1440 WSW 10 1355 WSW 10 1322 W 10 1388
Marshall SSW 10 277 SW 10 0 N 13 137 SW 5 277 SW 5 137 SW 4 1023
Crestline SSW 13 0 SSW 11 0 N 11 0 SSW 5 0 SW 5 0 SW 4 0
Mentone WSW 10 2212 WSW 10 992 WSW 9 1392 SW 8 1611 WSW 6 1392 WSW 5 5424
Kagel SSW 14 300 NNW 19 300 SW 10 527 SSW 10 471 SSW 10 360 SW 9 787
Lake Elsinore SW 13 1743 SW 13 1333 WSW 13 1743 SW 12 1605 WSW 11 1500 WSW 11 2072
Laguna WSW 21 7141 SW 21 3747 W 11 4010 WSW 10 4010 W 10 4272 WSW 5 7141
Big Black WSW 10 350 SW 11 0 WSW 10 135 WSW 10 191 WSW 9 191 WSW 8 821
Otay Mesa WSW 9 1183 SSW 11 1077 W 9 1156 WSW 10 1104 W 10 1104 W 10 1183
Soboba SW 13 1638 SW 12 769 WSW 11 1465 SW 10 1578 WSW 10 1465 WSW 10 1860
Henninger Flats SW 12 385 SW 10 0 SW 5 385 SSW 5 385 SSW 5 385 SSW 5 625
Palomar W 6 180 SSW 9 0 W 8 0 WSW 6 0 WSW 5 0 WSW 5 357
Thomas Mt W 14 7858 W 14 4142 W 9 6669 WSW 8 7157 W 8 7157 SE 5 8277
Winchester SSW 16 2110 SW 14 1357 SW 13 2165 SW 11 2054 SW 11 2054 WSW 10 2342
Blackhawk SW 27 8037 SW 20 6606 W 9 3677 WSW 12 6120 W 10 6120 ESE 8 7617
Ord S 25 5165 SW 19 2446 SW 12 4389 SSW 13 4649 SW 11 4907 SSW 10 7404
Warner Springs WSW 17 3491 WSW 16 0 WSW 13 1200 WSW 12 1200 WSW 11 2818 SW 10 4110

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst