NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

15 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for site: Ord coordinate: 34.403,-117.183 error getting data for site: Warner Springs coordinate: 33.2845028,-116.6696569
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 10 0 WNW 10 0 SW 9 140 WSW 9 0 W 10 0 SSW 10 0
Blossom Valley W 7 5093 W 12 8200 W 9 8414
Horse Canyon WNW 13 4178 NW 10 8067 WNW 14 8473 W 14 6748 W 17 6748 W 13 6824
Little Black W 11 2716 W 11 4827 WSW 10 4827 WSW 11 3560 W 11 3351 SW 11 3560
Marshall W 4 6857 W 9 9627 SW 6 9627
Crestline SW 8 1488 N 17 5112 SSW 13 5112 SSW 12 3782 SSW 13 3525 SSW 12 4163
Mentone WSW 8 4972 WSW 11 8140 W 10 8613 WSW 10 7627 WSW 11 7289 WSW 10 7879
Kagel NNW 10 4829 WSW 13 7052 SSW 12 5377 SSW 13 5377 SW 13 5124 SW 12 5952
Lake Elsinore W 9 4692 W 14 8313 SW 14 8062 WSW 13 6076 WSW 13 6076 SW 11 6076
Laguna WSW 23 3859 ENE 11 8367 WSW 20 10205 WSW 19 8367 WSW 21 8047 WSW 17 8367
Big Black W 10 3164 W 12 7406 WSW 13 7406 WSW 13 5712 WSW 14 5528 WSW 13 5712
Otay Mesa WNW 12 3944 WNW 12 6224 W 10 6224 W 11 5193 W 12 4986 WSW 11 5193
Soboba W 6 2766 WNW 11 6272 SSW 14 6479 SW 12 5439 SSW 12 5021 SW 11 5439
Henninger Flats WSW 9 3707 WSW 12 6968 SSW 9 5589 SSW 9 5458 SW 10 5056 SW 10 5458
Palomar W 8 2308 W 11 4618 W 9 4825
Thomas Mt W 6 5421 WNW 10 10704 W 10 11653
Winchester WSW 6 4026 W 9 7158 SSW 16 7158 SSW 11 6123 SSW 12 5707 SSW 11 6123
Blackhawk W 18 3431 NW 10 7937 NW 19 9970 WSW 16 9349 WSW 17 9349 WSW 13 9349

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst