NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 9 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 W 8 0 W 8 0 W 8 0
Blossom Valley W 10 1714 W 10 1695 W 10 1714 W 8 2085 W 8 2611 W 8 2221
Horse Canyon W 10 10581 WNW 11 10581 W 10 11903 W 8 12406 W 6 12322 W 6 11903
Little Black W 10 1504 W 11 1292 W 10 1504 W 9 1835 W 9 1885 WSW 9 1858
Marshall SSW 11 3158 SSW 9 2485 SSW 8 4203 SW 5 4736 SW 5 7016 SW 5 8845
Crestline SSW 12 916 SSW 10 308 SSW 9 1501 SW 5 3968 SW 5 5655 SSW 5 6699
Mentone WSW 10 4956 WSW 9 3844 WSW 8 7321 WSW 8 7321 WSW 8 11203 WSW 8 9323
Kagel SW 8 493 SW 9 159 SW 9 493 SW 10 3011 SW 9 5260 SW 9 6262
Lake Elsinore W 5 12090 WSW 5 9487 WSW 4 12090
Laguna W 10 8351 W 11 8768 W 10 8768 W 10 9180 W 8 9180 W 8 9180
Big Black W 11 1775 W 11 988 W 11 2371 WSW 9 4131 WSW 9 4635 WSW 8 4635
Otay Mesa WNW 11 1437 WNW 12 1461 WNW 10 1437 W 9 1591 W 8 1645 W 8 1591
Soboba WSW 13 6045 SW 11 5544 WSW 9 6633
Henninger Flats SSW 9 544 SSW 8 199 SW 4 258 SW 4 1201 SW 4 2965 SSW 3 1547
Palomar WSW 10 0 WSW 11 0 WSW 9 16
Thomas Mt WNW 12 8819 WNW 11 9432 WNW 10 10241 SSW 5 10041 WSW 5 10241 SSW 5 10241
Winchester WSW 10 2876 W 10 1949 W 10 2191 W 10 4678 W 11 6846 WSW 11 6363
Blackhawk WSW 10 7147 W 12 7777 WSW 12 9017 WSW 10 9017 W 8 9220 SW 8 9424
Ord SSW 19 11857 SW 14 12146 SSW 14 12353 SW 13 12088 SSW 11 13094 SSW 12 14379
Warner Springs W 11 6036 W 13 7824 W 12 9853 W 11 10276 WSW 10 11258 SW 10 11041

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst