NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

250205/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport ESE 6 0 W 6 0 S 8 0 WNW 8 0 W 6 0 SW 8 0
Blossom Valley W 9 2415 WSW 8 2230 WSW 6 2265 W 6 2415 WSW 6 2415 WSW 8 2301
Horse Canyon NW 12 2246 W 12 62 W 14 1042 W 6 3175 WSW 8 3278 WSW 10 1042
Little Black W 8 629 SW 6 0 SW 9 0 WNW 8 0 WSW 8 162 SW 10 0
Marshall SE 9 0 SE 10 0 ESE 12 0 NW 6 380 N 5 837 W 6 0
Crestline SE 12 0 SSE 14 0 SE 13 0 NW 9 0 N 6 0 W 8 0
Mentone WSW 5 849 SSW 5 628 E 5 665 W 4 1932 W 4 2254 W 5 1112
Kagel SSE 16 197 S 14 197 SW 16 197 N 17 513 NNE 18 934 W 10 407
Lake Elsinore S 8 1252 WSW 10 1106 S 10 883 W 9 1518 WSW 9 2406 WSW 10 1349
Laguna WSW 20 2104 SW 25 0 SW 27 253 W 10 2376 WSW 8 2315 WSW 10 1675
Big Black W 10 219 WSW 10 0 WSW 9 0 W 8 1151 WSW 8 1453 WSW 10 89
Otay Mesa WNW 10 2324 WNW 8 2181 SW 10 2217 WNW 9 2217 W 8 2288 WSW 10 2181
Soboba SW 5 0 WSW 9 0 SSE 9 0 W 8 1483 WSW 9 1555 W 10 0
Henninger Flats ESE 9 340 S 8 0 SSW 12 0 N 9 498 NNE 10 603 SW 4 449
Palomar W 6 0 SSW 5 0 ESE 4 0 W 5 612 WSW 5 648 WSW 6 0
Thomas Mt WNW 13 1897 W 16 627 W 19 1703 W 8 2184 WSW 8 2184 W 10 1897
Winchester SW 6 1277 SSW 8 228 SSW 8 228 WNW 6 1970 SW 8 2121 W 9 1898
Blackhawk SW 18 1762 WSW 9 1475 SW 26 1125 W 10 1125 NNW 6 725 WNW 10 0
Ord S 23 1169 S 24 179 S 26 299 WNW 10 605 NW 8 605 W 10 179
Warner Springs WNW 11 0 WSW 13 0 W 13 0 W 10 2127 SW 10 1483 W 12 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst