Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 32.8903198191, -117.251856742, 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

15 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 WNW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 NW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 32 NW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 34 W 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 W 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 39 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 44 W 5 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 45 W 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 46 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 45 W 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 44 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 42 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 41 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 59 39 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 38 NW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 37 NW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 NW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 35 NNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 NNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 NNW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 36 NNE 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 40 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 45 NW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 49 WNW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 51 WNW 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 52 WNW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 51 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 49 WNW 10 18 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 47 WNW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 44 NW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 NW 8 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 41 NNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 NNW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 NNW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 38 N 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 N 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 NNW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 W 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 SW 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 SW 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 SSW 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 S 2 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 S 3 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 40 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 44 SSW 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 50 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 53 SW 8 14 548 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 66 53 SW 9 16 548 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 66 52 SW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 51 SW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 49 SW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 46 SW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 43 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 41 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 SSW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 39 S 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 37 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 S 5 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 S 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 SSW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 39 SSW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 41 SSW 5 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 46 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 48 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 49 WSW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 47 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 46 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 45 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 43 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 41 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 40 WSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 37 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 37 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 37 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 37 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 36 SSW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 36 W 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 35 W 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 36 W 3 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 38 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 W 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 45 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 46 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 47 W 6 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 45 W 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 45 W 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 43 W 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 42 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 39 W 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 WNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 WNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 WNW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 SW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 SW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 SW 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 34 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 SW 4 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 37 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 40 S 4 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 46 SSW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 48 SSW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 48 SSW 8 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 48 SSW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 47 SSW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 46 SSW 10 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 43 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 41 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 39 SSW 9 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 38 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 SW 6 12 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst